Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The Cholesterol Confusion

If you listen to your average physician (and/or the gazillion dollar advertising blitz associated with anti-cholesterol drugs) you would probably believe that reducing LDL cholesterol levels (and raising HDL cholesterol levels) results in healthier arteries and therefore in better cardiac health. Some people have questioned this link, especially that of LDL cholesterol with atherosclerosis, for a while. A couple of recent clinical trials have given further cause for skepticism. Here’s a good column (What’s Cholesterol Got to Do With It?) by Gary Taubes in the NY Times that gives some nice background and summarizes the facts.

Note that statins do help to prevent heart disease --- they also happen to reduce LDL cholesterol. The problem arises when one assumes that reducing LDL cholesterol alone can also prevent heart disease.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Two endorsements worth reading

First, Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama in the New York Times. For those of you who may have a knee-jerk antagonistic response to the name Kennedy, I ask you to forget the source (to the extent possible given the nature of the article), read the words and be honest to your thoughts and emotions. Here’s an excerpt:

Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.”

Second, a passionate appeal, and well-made case, by my good friend Robb over at Tokatakiya.

An excerpt: : “I don't think it is an exaggeration to say the best thing we can do to win hearts and minds in the War on Terror would be to have Barack Obama as President. We have a singular opportunity for this right now that will pass away in a short time.”

Robb makes several good points, but that one is particularly perceptive. I don’t think most people appreciate how powerfully and how well the election of Barack Obama to the presidency will resonate with the rest of the world---and not just because of his ethnic origins, but in equal measure because of how well he represents himself and the USA.

All that having been said I don’t envy the next administration because they stand to inherit an absolute mess. Even the Republicans don’t want the office this time around---which is why they let patsies like McCain and Giuliani or nutjobs like Huckabee and Romney take the fall ….errrr…become president….should they win.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Tiger’s pursuit of history

As I write this, Tiger Woods is at 20 under par, 10 shots ahead of the next nearest competitor with 7 holes to go in the Buick Invitational (his first tournament of the year). So he has essentially won this tournament now--- his sixth win at this tournament/venue, with the last four coming in a row. This year’s US Open is scheduled to be held at the same course (Torrey Pines South) later this year. Even thought the course will be set up (and play) very differently, it is hard to imagine a more prohibitive favorite than Tiger for that event.

Anyway, this will be Tiger’s 62nd PGA Tour win---the same number of tour wins that the great Arnold Palmer had in his entire career. Tiger has been a pro for only 11 full seasons. Just amazing. But Tiger has far more lofty goals than this, and he is systematically going about achieving them. Barring catastrophic injury, he is going to obliterate every significant record in golf.

He has also recently allowed that the calendar Grand Slam is achievable for him this year, given the venues and the state of his game. Also, in a short interview with David Feherty yesterday, Tiger said that 12-wins-in-a-row (breaking Byron Nelson's amazing record of 11 straight wins, set in 1945) is possible. That the normally circumspect and ‘vanilla-response’ Tiger should publicly entertain such notions is stunning to me---and an indication of how high is confidence must be.

Of course, the defining pursuit of Tiger’s career is Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 professional major championships. In this regard, it is worth revisiting something I wrote on Tokatakiya last August, after Tiger won his 13th professional major. When I wrote this, I clearly thought that this was an ambitious timeline, but achievable for Tiger. It boggles my mind that Tiger may have an even shorter timeline to his goal in mind. Ri-frikkin-diculous. Anyway, here are my thoughts from last August, with some minor edits for clarity.

You heard it here first:

I have a pretty good idea about when Tiger Woods will break Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 professional major championships. As of today, Tiger has 13 majors and so he needs five more majors to tie, six more to surpass Jack’s record. Now, here’s the major championship schedule for the next three years:

2008: Masters at Augusta National,

US Open at Torrey Pines South,

British Open at Royal Birkdale,

PGA at Oakland Hills;

2009: Masters at Augusta National,

US Open at Bethpage Black,

British Open at Turnberry,

PGA at Hazeltine;

2010: Masters at Augusta National,

US Open at Pebble Beach,

British Open at St. Andrews Old Course,

PGA at Whistling Straits.

I have put bold emphasis on courses that Tiger performs well on---and he takes the ‘horses for courses’ idea to ridiculous heights as exemplified by his record at some events in his eleven-year career. He has won the WGC event at Firestone six times in its nine-year existence, he has won the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines five times including 3-in-a-row, he won the Bay Hill Invitational four times in a row from 2000-2003, and of course, has won the Masters four times in just eleven tries as a professional. Anyway, so you get the idea---anytime he tees it up he’s the favorite to win, but when he likes a course he is the prohibitive favorite to win.

I’ve highlighted Bethpage Black because the last time the US Open was held there Tiger won it. It is a long and brutal course and only a handful of the top tour players stand a decent chance of winning it and when you eliminate the bulk of the field, you only help Tiger. I’ve highlighted Pebble Beach because it is one of Tiger’s (and Jack’s) favorite golf courses and the last time the US Open was held there Tiger won it by fifteen shots. I’ve highlighted St. Andrews because the last two Opens that have been held there have been won by Tiger in comfortable fashion.

And then there’s the history. Few courses in the world are as steeped in history and mystique as Pebble Beach and, the birthplace of golf, St. Andrews. It is no coincidence that Jack Nicklaus said farewell to the US Open at Pebble and said farewell to the British Open at St. Andrews. Jack is famously quoted to have said “If I had one last round to play, I would likely choose Pebble Beach”. And his bond with St. Andrews is just as close---heck, when he played his last Open at St. Andrews in 2005 the Royal Bank of Scotland issued 5-pound notes with his image on it. You know you’ve done all right when your face shows up on currency; you know you’ve done really well when it shows up on foreign currency!!

Anyways, with Tiger’s keen sense of history I’d think he’d love to tie Jack’s record at Pebble Beach and break it at St. Andrews. And my guess is that Jack, if he had to see his record broken, would deem three places most fitting for that singular honor---Pebble Beach, St. Andrews and Augusta National (more on this in a moment).

So for Tiger to be able to even try the Pebble/St.Andrews scenario, he will need to win four of the next nine majors. To achieve it he’d have to win six of the next eleven majors. Sounds silly, but then again he reeled off seven wins in an eleven major stretch from 1999-2002. His game has been steadily trending toward the fearsome form of 2000. The only reason he hasn’t won more majors in the past couple of years is that his putter let him down. The past two Masters could have been his, but for the fact that he narrowly missed those crucial putts that he normally drains. The performance he put on the last two weeks at Firestone and Southern Hills shows that his putting is back--- and when that happens it is curtains for the field. By the way, Tiger had Lasik surgery in October 1999 before he went on that impressive tear in 2000-2002, and he had Lasik done again the Monday after the Masters this year. I don’t think it is coincidence that he is draining crucial par putts again.

I think he does it. Five of the next nine majors set up very well for him. And he’s no slouch on the other four either. The old refrain “the course does not set up well for Tiger’s game” is just nonsense. Tiger has honed his game into the ultimate Swiss Army knife---it is sharp, sleek, portable and versatile and it will help him carve up any course he wants. More often than not, if he putts well, he wins----it is as simple as that. So while I don’t know much about the two British Open and PGA venues 2008 and 2009, it would be foolish to count him out of those. Also, as a pro he has won 13 of 44 majors he’s played and at that clip he should have 3.5 more majors by the end of 2010. Anyway, I think he wins four majors coming into Pebble Beach in 2010 and then proceeds to do the double he did in 2000---win the US at pebble and the British at St. Andrews for his 18th and 19th professional majors. There’s too much historic symmetry in this scenario for it not to happen.

PS: A couple of twists:

1) Many consider the US Amateur title to be a major (I agree). Taking that view Jack has 20 total majors while Tiger now has 16. So in this scenario, four more majors ties Jack and five more sets a new record. So St. Andrews promises to be site of a historic win for Tiger one way or another.

2) If Tiger manages to win 2 more Masters and 5 more total majors by the end of 2010, there is also the intriguing possibility that Tiger will go into the 2011 Masters with a chance to break Jack’s 6-Masters and 18-pro majors records in the same tournament.

Not quite the history as breaking it at the home of golf, St. Andrews, but not bad either.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

The Moral Instinct—Steven Pinker

From the New York Times Magazine, Jan 13, 2008.

“When people pondered the dilemmas that required killing someone with their bare hands, several networks in their brains lighted up. One, which included the medial (inward-facing) parts of the frontal lobes, has been implicated in emotions about other people. A second, the dorsolateral (upper and outer-facing) surface of the frontal lobes, has been implicated in ongoing mental computation (including nonmoral reasoning, like deciding whether to get somewhere by plane or train). And a third region, the anterior cingulate cortex (an evolutionarily ancient strip lying at the base of the inner surface of each cerebral hemisphere), registers a conflict between an urge coming from one part of the brain and an advisory coming from another.

But when the people were pondering a hands-off dilemma, like switching the trolley onto the spur with the single worker, the brain reacted differently: only the area involved in rational calculation stood out. Other studies have shown that neurological patients who have blunted emotions because of damage to the frontal lobes become utilitarians: they think it makes perfect sense to throw the fat man off the bridge. Together, the findings corroborate Greene’s theory that our nonutilitarian intuitions come from the victory of an emotional impulse over a cost-benefit analysis.”

Complete article here.

Fascinating stuff.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Dumb and dumber: An open letter to William Saletan


The debate on genetically-determined intelligence differences amongst racial groups is nothing new. However, it got a fresh spark recently when renowned scientist and Nobel Laureate Jim Watson made some irresponsible comments on the issue and brought his remarkable career to an unfitting end. Watson has subsequently apologized unreservedly and clarified that there is no scientific evidence to support the notion that any racial group was inferior or superior to another in intelligence. But that didn’t stop much of the journalistic and blogger(istic?) reaction, and people have written passionately on each side of the issue.

A couple of weeks ago, William Saletan wrote a 3-part article on race and intelligence on Slate.com that was an exemplar of how to use dubious data and faulty logic to arrive at incorrect conclusions and then unleash that dangerously flawed material on the general public. There has been a lot of reaction to Saletan’s article too, and I think several people have done a good job at pointing out the numerous problems with it. (Saletan followed this up by writing a piece called ‘Regrets’ which I will come to in a minute). For those wanting a general summary of the issue and responses to Saletan, this OpEd piece by Richard Nisbett in the 12/09/2007 NY Times, and this piece by Stephen Metcalf also of Slate should be useful.

I’m not going into a detailed deconstruction of every point in Saletan’s writings---I’ll just touch on a couple of key ones as they provide a good framework to discuss intelligence itself and peoples’ prejudices in that regard. There is also the issue of journalistic integrity and responsibility---areas in which I think Saletan was very remiss--- and I’d like to address that too. So here goes....

Dear William Saletan,

I noticed that you have posted an interesting piece titled ‘Regrets’ as an afterword to your essays on race and intelligence. In some ways, ‘Regrets’ is more annoying than your original articles, as you mainly use it as an attempt to sanitize your original stance, rather than actually re-consider or retract your irresponsible claims.

You started ‘Regrets’ with the line “Last week, I wrote about the possibility of genetic IQ differences among races”. That sentence is, at the very least, a misrepresentation because you wrote (at least initially) about the possibility of genetic intelligence differences among races. As for IQ differences, you represented them to be very real, existent along racial lines and genetically determined. Then, based on this IQ argument, you concluded that there were indeed genetically determined intelligence differences between races.

Anyway, you continue ‘Regrets’ with “But my attempts to characterize the evidence beyond that, even with caveats such as "partial," "preliminary," and "prima facie," have backfired. I outlined the evidence primarily to illustrate the limits of the genetic hypothesis. If it turns out to be true, it will be in a less threatening form than you might imagine. As to whether it's true, you'll have to judge the evidence for yourself. Every responsible scholar I know says we should wait many years before drawing conclusions.” Well that sounds nice and reasonable. And it sounds like you simply raised some possibilities and you’re being persecuted for it.

Too bad for you, that’s just not true. I’ll give you two examples from your own article. In part three, you write, “Intermarriage is closing the gap. To the extent that IQ differences are genetic, the surest way to eliminate them is to reunite the human genome. This is already happening, including in my own family.” You know, I didn’t realize that the “Some of my best friends are black” card comes in a platinum “Some of my best relatives are married to blacks” version. I bet it gets you exclusive access to Bigotry Mart outlets and Condescension Lounges at airports all over the world. I am overcome with envy. But anyway, please be sure to let your ‘differently IQed’ family member know, over a special holiday meal perhaps, how much you are doing for the intelligence of his/her race. Being of an inferior IQ race, there is the possibility that he/she is not smart enough to appreciate it otherwise, you know? Don’t thank me, buddy; just doing what I can.

And then there is the grand concluding paragraph of your 3-part article: “Don't tell me those Nigerian babies aren't cognitively disadvantaged. Don't tell me it isn't genetic. Don't tell me it's God's will. And in the age of genetic modification, don't tell me we can't do anything about it. No, we are not created equal. But we are endowed by our Creator with the ideal of equality, and the intelligence to finish the job.” That’s a pretty definitive statement, dude. There doesn’t appear to be any ifs, ands, buts or maybes about it. Not only have you concluded by this point that some races of humans are less intelligent than others, you have the solution for it too---genetic engineering! It is quite remarkable really---You looped effortlessly around any attempt to meaningfully define intelligence, did a triple-lutz over the biases of IQ testing and then had the guts to go for the mind-boggling eugenics-twist landing, all while skating on thin ice! Braaaa-vvvo!!

Setting aside the absurdity of your belief that we possess either

(i) the detailed (or even fundamental) understanding of cognitive processes and their biochemical and genetic workings to begin to tinker with them at an engineering level or

(ii) the technical know-how and ability to “finish the job” on anything by genetic manipulation of humans, let alone an overwhelmingly complex trait such as intelligence,

and assuming for a ridiculous moment that we could do it, then, how would you “finish the job”? What would you ‘fix’ intelligence to? What is the Saletan-ian paragon of intelligence? Is it merely altitude on the IQ scale? I hope not, because from what we know about IQ testing, equating IQ scores to intelligence could be a lot like equating truthiness to truth. But whatever that paragon may be, while you are at it don’t forget one more thing. There are these enzymes called DNA polymerases that have this pesky feature of making occasional mistakes while replicating our DNA. These errors, of course, result in genetic variations. So while you are taking the trouble to ‘finish the job’ of equalizing human intelligence across the races to the Saletan-ian paragon, please also be sure to fix the DNA polymerase genes such that those enzymes doesn’t make errors any more. You are, after all, striving to raise the human race from Homo sapiens to Homo genous, or maybe even Homo genius I guess. By fixing the polymerase genes you can try to keep nature from stupidly undoing over time what you would have taken great pains to do for humankind.

The problem with intelligence is that we cannot even define it comprehensively. Accomplished scholars find it difficult to come to consensus on a meaningful and encompassing definition of intelligence. It is easy to come up with working definitions such as scores on tests, success in school or college, success in amassing wealth, professional achievement and so on. But those are, in the larger scheme of things, poor definitions that rely on subjective and ever-changing frames of reference. Those definitions are always temporally fettered, not timeless. And this has been the basis of my problem with those who attempt to quantify differences in intelligence---how can one presume to precisely measure that which one cannot even adequately define?

So let us consider something pretty much everyone can agree on--- that one of the fundamental parameters of intelligence is the ability to learn. Based on this criterion alone, I think we have enough evidence over the course of our history to conclude that ------DRUM ROLL PLEASE---- as a race, a species, a collective, humans are not really very intelligent. Homo sapiens may be quite the misnomer for us----sure we have produced individuals who are sapient, but as a collective we keep proving ourselves to be anything but sapient. Just take the example of violence. We still remain one of the few animal species that willfully and wantonly kills its own. I’m sure that people will proffer many reasons/rationalizations for killing, but these don’t matter. The fact remains that we, as a species, continue to deliberately kill depressingly large numbers of our own. And this trend seems to show little signs of significant decline with time. This fundamental approach to solving societal and global problems---that mass violence is an option---has not changed over millenia. And this is not restricted to any race, culture or country---- virtually every branch of the human race has a rich history of barbarism and cruelty towards other humans. At the same time, even a cursory glance at our documented history should be sufficient to teach us that violence rarely effects lasting change or progress. Lasting change has always come from education and willful choice, not oppression and forced regulation. But the human race still refuses either to learn from, or to effectively apply any progressive lessons that may have been learned from, history. So whether by willful ignorance or cognitive dissonance, we still repeat the mistakes of our past. Perversely though, as a species, we do seem to draw on history to remember and propagate much of the prejudiced behavior that many of our ancestors practiced. Often we call this tradition. Somehow, all this doesn’t seem very intelligent.

Sometimes I wonder whether humans are so far down the cosmic scale of intelligence, if there is such a thing, that any cognitive differences amongst us may laughably insignificant. Let me illustrate this thought with an analogy---Let’s there is a place in which the average wealth is $50000 give or take a $1000. Let’s also say that there is a small isolated village in that place where the average wealth is $100 give or take $10. Now, if a villager with $105 claims to be superior to a villager with $95, how meaningful is it in the larger scheme of things? I think sometimes that on a cosmic frame of intelligence we humans may be like those villagers, quibbling furiously over possible differences that are, in the larger context, meaningless.

This is not to say that the human race has not produced sapient individuals; We have our famous examples such as Darwin, daVinci, Galileo, Gandhi, and so on. But we have also produced millions of lesser known such individuals, who constantly learn and apply progressive lessons. There are today (as there have been in the past) millions of humans who reach out to other humans, often putting themselves and their progeny at a relative disadvantage, because they realize that if true prosperity does not reach every human being on earth it will eventually be available to none. We fail repeatedly as a species, because we refuse to learn from such people. They, by the way, are called liberal thinkers.

Which brings me to my final point: Of all the terrible things you wrote, William Saletan, the most egregious one was the ‘liberal creationism’ straw-man argument, wherein you posit that “All men are not created equal” and blame the liberals for not coming to grips with this notion. Congrats, by the way, for thereby joining the ranks of accomplished verbal defecators such as Bill O’Reilly, Ann Coulter, Dinesh D’Souza etc.

Seriously dude, you’re sounding pretty silly with that crack at liberals. Of course all humans are not born equal. In fact I’d be shocked if, in the entire history of human existence, any two humans have been born truly equal. But liberals know that we are all different and, what’s more, they are comfortable with it. Liberals are people who embrace diversity, remember? Liberals are people who do not enforce their values and morality on others, remember? Liberals truly understand that the only hope for civilized society is to guarantee each one of us equal rights; this understanding is grounded in the realization that we are all unequal and that we need to learn to live with our inequalities and differences. Liberals don’t have a problem with the notion that no two humans are equal----they accept it without judgment. Liberals do have a problem, however, with the suggestion that the differences amongst us in such complex traits as intelligence will neatly package themselves along racial lines--- because such a suggestion is not only unsubstantiated but indeed countered by all that we know.

Conservative thinking, on the other hand, shrilly demands conformity. Conservative thinking resists diversity and denies individuals the basic freedom to be different. Conservatives believe that every one is created equal and assume therefore that everyone should be able to live by a common set of rules and values----which just happen to be their rules and values. Conservative thought says, “How can they not conform to my world view? Dammit, there must be something wrong with them!” It is such conservative thinking that primes the mind to jump hastily on any information that may appear to substantiate one’s prejudices. This may explain why you didn’t pause to ponder why something you cited as evidence was a fairly isolated piece of work that failed to blossom into a field of corroborated study. Maybe if you had paused to ponder that, you may have done the background work in time to realize that the study you cited was flawed, agenda-driven and authored by a person with obvious white supremacist ties. That would have saved you the one apology you did make in ‘Regrets’.

Sincerely,
A. Moustache.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

On not winning the Nobel Prize---Doris Lessing

Doris Lessing was awarded the 2007 Nobel Prize in Literature. So you figure she can write. And man, can she write. Here’s the text of Doris Lessing’s Nobel Lecture from last week (I came upon this via 3QuarksDaily and The Guardian, so thanks to them).

I think she doesn’t completely credit the internet with the power that it has to inform. But maybe she means that, like TV, we will end up using it as a toy of mass distraction rather than as powerful information tool.

The lecture is a bit long but it makes for beautiful reading. It never ceases to amaze me how great writers can paint such vivid pictures so effortlessly with words. But it goes beyond the technique and art of writing. The greatest writers are great philosophers. They have the ability to take all the sorrow, injustice and tragedy in the human experience and distill from it simple yet quintessential truths about the human spirit. Then, of course, they communicate it to us in such beautiful ways.

Take the time to read it. If you stick with it to the end, you will be rewarded.


Sunday, December 9, 2007

A DNA-Driven World---J. Craig Venter

From 'The 32nd Richard Dimbleby Lecture
Delivered by J. Craig Venter, BBC One, December 4, 2007'

"There are also science intensive schools that are trying alternative teaching methods. One such school in Virginia is teaching students to be more like scientists - to use inquiry-based learning and encouraging them to do experiments they designed themselves rather than age-old text book experiments and lessons heavy on memorization. These students are learning what I learned on my own while doing research as an advanced university student : that there is no greater intellectual joy than asking seemingly simple questions about life, then designing an experiment to find answers and uncovering a never before known discovery. We need generations of children who are grounded in reality and who learn evidenced-based decision making as a life-long philosophy. Teaching science as evidence-based decision making could have a profound impact on the pace of future discoveries and inventions. Simply asking what is the evidence behind any claim is a marked contrast to approaching life only upon a faith-based system.

Fostering such scientific literacy is crucial, because we and our planet are facing problems that, I believe, can only be solved by scientific advancement."

The entire article is a bit long, but it is a quick (and, I think, a must) read.